As I’m sure you will have noticed, fuel prices are currently running at all time record highs and average prices have burst through the £1-a-litre barrier which, for any business running vehicles, is a large financial hit to absorb.
But why, exactly, is fuel so expensive right now?
The cost of fuel is made up of the base cost of the product, the VAT and the fuel duty imposed by the Government – a sizeable amount.
Nick Staples, Managing Director of leading Fuel Card supplier Forecourt Fuels Ltd, offered the following explaination:-
“One of the biggest challenges we face as consumers in the UK is that we have the highest duty rates in Europe, particularly on diesel. Generally, we have the highest overall price for diesel in Europe, although not always on unleaded petrol. Most other countries differentiate in the level of duty between unleaded and diesel, whereas the UK doesn’t.”
OIL PRICES
Various factors have sent the price of fuel rocketing recently, not least the cost of oil from which diesel and petrol are made.
From the late 1980’s (apart from a brief blip during the first Gulf War), the price of oil stayed fairly consistent at about $25-$30 a barrel.
But in 2003 the prices started to escalate, thanks to the second Gulf War and increased demand from developing economies such as China and India.
“In 2005 we experienced Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, terrorism and concern over Iran’s nuclear programme,” Mr Staples explains.
“There were a whole host of factors that conspired to escalate prices over a two to three year period.”
This year prices came down in January to a fairly reasonable level – around $55 a barrel.
But during the year, this price has escalated, mostly due to tight supply market.
“That mirrored the conditions in 2006,” Mr Staples says.
“The difference this year is that since September prices have escalated again, while in 2006 they slowed down.
“The market has been incredibly tight in supply terms which has resulted in a large price rise.”
A key problem is that refineries, where oil is converted to fuel, are stretched.
“Refinery capacity is still an issue and there are concerns over the long-term supply and demand balance in the crude oil market,” says Mr Staples.
“There is a fairly limited capacity spare to increase the level of crude in the market if there was supply disruption.”
While US house prices do not seem to have a huge amount to do with UK fuel prices, the credit problems in the States have definitely had a direct impact.
“There’s been a lot of speculation in the oil market which has been compounded by the credit situation in the US,” Mr Staples says.
“A lot of money that would normally have gone into equity markets has gone into commodities.”
STOCK WORRIES
All the main industrial countries retain stocks of crude oil and fuel to get them through emergencies. But right now, stocks in the US are at their lowest level for the past five years.
“The oil stocks are running at a lower level than the market would ideally like” says Mr Staples
“Eventually, the Government will have to return into the market to replenish its stock levels, but will be reluctant to do so while the price is so high”.
“However, keeping low stock levels maintains the prices so it’s a vicious circle.”
THE FUTURE
So, what is the outcome of this situation?
“We’re at an unusually high price going into the winter,” Mr Staples explains.
“If there’s a very cold winter that will put even further pressure on the market.”
Not all the news is bad however – more problems for America could mean good news for UK consumers at the pumps.
“There is speculation that the US economy might struggle in the first half of 2008,” Mr Staples says.
“If that reduces US demand it will take some pressure out of the market.
“Also, if we have a good winter, that will relieve some of the pressure on heating oil and also help.”
So it’s not all doom and gloom?
“Extra capacity is due to come online in 2008, although it’s unlikely to make an impact until later in the year.”
Fuel duty rose by 2p per litre in October and further increases are planned next year.
“We would hope the Chancellor will keep those increases under review and assess market conditions at the time before making a decision,” Mr Staples adds.
“If prices are very high it may not be great timing to make further duty increases.
“We already have extremely high rates of fuel duty and it’s an additional cost that businesses will have no choice but to pass on wherever possible.”
Whatever happens as we go into 2008, don’t expect to see pump prices fall in the immediate future.
“Diesel prices in particular will remain comfortably over the £1 per litre mark until the turn of the year at least” Mr Staples says.
“We’re in a high price market at the moment and it’s difficult to see where the any price fall will come from.”